PredictionLabs Trading Competition
By Evan Doubek · May 15, 2026
This semester, SIGecom and SIGPolicy are excited to announce that we have been developing a live research study on prediction markets, and we’re inviting students across campus to lend their “collective wisdom” by betting trading on a series of questions over the next three weeks on our custom-built trading platform. Unlike traditional gambling where bets are made against the house (DraftKings, your local casino, etc.), a prediction market lets participants trade contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Before the outcome is settled either way, the price of a contract becomes a direct, market-informed estimate of how likely an event is to occur. We are running this study in collaboration with the team at SIGPolicy, whose focus on ethics and governance makes them a fitting partner. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity over the past year, earning praise for outperforming pollsters and pundits in forecasting elections, professional sports, and other real-world events. They have also drawn controversy for blurring the lines with gambling, welcoming “superior information” (some would call it insider trading), and raising questions about what should and shouldn’t be fair game for prediction markets. SIGecom and SIGPolicy will be hosting a joint livestream before each event to debate these points, so whether you are interested in the societal implications or the market dynamics, you invite you to tune in! Taking inspiration from Polymarket, we designed our experiment around an Automated Market Maker (AMM) that dynamically prices each contract based on real-time supply and demand, so the market price of a “yes” share at any moment reflects the crowd’s estimated probability of that outcome. The market starts with both contracts at 50 cents for 50% probability, but as traders buy and sell, prices adjust automatically to capture market sentiment. This algorithm is designed to maintain liquidity in the prediction market. In short, if you want to place an order, the market will always quote you a price for it. Though the real platforms credit their accuracy to people “putting their money where their mouth is” rest assured you won’t have to put any of your own money on the line. Every participant will start with the same virtual balance of 100 SigCoin. However, there is a very real prize pool of $800 up for grabs for the most successful traders at the end of the study! We will also be hosting three online live events at PredictionsLab.org, each accompanied by trading activity and prizes:
- April 22nd at 7:00 PM
- April 29th at 7:00 PM
- May 6th at 7:00 PM
At each event, $200 in prizes will be awarded to the top-ranking participants, giving you multiple chances to compete and win. Participants can already begin playing for real money as well by participating in longer-term prediction markets that will last a few days to a week. Keep an eye out for updates on PredictionsLab.org and make sure to tune in to the live events and preceding livestreams. We look forward to seeing the results of our study and sharing our findings with the ACM community. To be clear, neither SIGecom nor SIGPolicy encourage gambling or endorse the use of real-money prediction markets. Our interest is purely academic, and this study is an opportunity for students to engage in prediction market dynamics in a controlled simulation.